首页|Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin1

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin1

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The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout his-tory.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains ill-defined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that cli-mate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an～44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Flooding riskRisk managementClimate changeFlood dischargeExtreme precipitation

Hengxing Lan、Zheng Zhao、Langping Li、Junhua Li、Bojie Fu、Naiman Tian、Ruixun Lai、Sha Zhou、Yanbo Zhu、Fanyu Zhang、Jianbing Peng、John J.Clague

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State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 10049,China

Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,China

State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China,The Ministry of Education of China,School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China

Department of Earth Sciences,Simon Fraser University,Bumaby,Canada

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国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

420410064179044341927806

2024

10.1016/j.geosus.2024.01.004

地理学与可持续性(英文)

地理学与可持续性(英文)

ISSN：
年,卷(期)：2024.5(2)