首页|Projected impacts of climate change and anthropogenic effects on habitat distribution of endangered Javan Hawk-Eagle in Indonesia
Projected impacts of climate change and anthropogenic effects on habitat distribution of endangered Javan Hawk-Eagle in Indonesia
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Changing climate will jeopardize biodiversity,particularly the geographic distribution of endemic species.One such species is the Javan Hawk-Eagle(JHE,Nisaetus bartelsi),a charismatic raptor found only on Java Island,Indonesia.Thus,it is crucial to develop an appropriate conservation strategy to preserve the species.Ecological niche modeling is considered a valuable tool for designing conservation plans for the JHE.We provide an ecolog-ical niche modeling approach and transfer its model to future climate scenarios for the JHE.We utilize various machine learning algorithms under sustainability and business-as-usual(BAU)scenarios for 2050.Additionally,we investigate the conservation vulnerability of the JHE,capturing multifaceted pressures on the species from climate dissimilarities and human disturbance variables.Our study reveals that the ensemble model performs ex-ceptionally well,with temperature emerging as the most critical factor affecting the JHE distribution.This finding indicates that climate change will have a significant impact on the JHE species.Our results suggest that the JHE distribution will likely decrease by 28.41％and 40.16％from the current JHE distribution under sustainability and BAU scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,our study reveals high-potential refugia for future JHE,covering 7,596 km2(61％)under the sustainability scenario and only 4,403 km2(35％)under the BAU scenario.Therefore,effective management and planning,including habitat restoration,refugia preservation,habitat connectivity,and local community inclusivity,should be well-managed to achieve JHE conservation targets.
Department of Landscape Architecture,Faculty of Agriculture,IPB University(Bogor Agricultural University),Bogor 16680,Indonesia
International Research Institute for Environment and Climate Change-IPB University,Collaborative Research Centre,Bogor 16128,Indonesia
Rainforest Alliance,Denpasar,Bali 80227,Indonesia
Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences,The University of Tokyo,Tokyo 113-8657,Japan
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IPB UniversityUniversity of Tokyo,JapanWorld Class Professor Program from Directorate of Resources,Director General of Higher Education,Research,and Technology-Ministr
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