Diabetes burden and trend prediction in Siming district of Xiamen city from 2017 to 2022
Objective To investigate the burden of diabetes and predict the trend of diabetes mortality in Siming district of Xiamen city,so as to provide reference for diabetes prevention and control.Methods The death information of patients with diabetes in Siming district from 2017 to 2022 was collected from the death information registration system.The mortality rate,potential years of life lost(PYLL),potential years of work lost(WYPLL),premature death probability were calculated for evaluating the burden of diabetes.The annual percentage change(APC)was used to analyze the change trend of the rates.The grey model of GM(1,1)was used for prediction.Results The mortality rate of diabetes was 17.79/100 000,with the standardized rate of 13.25/100 000 in Siming district from2017 to 2022,and the mortality rate increased by 6.41％per year(t=4.817,P＜0.05).The mortality and standardized mortality of the males were slightly higher than those of the females.The mortality increased with the age(trend x2=111 183.977,P＜0.001).The mortality increased from 40 years old and above,speed up after 70 years and reached the peak in 85 years old and above.The AYLL due to diabetes was 10.35 person-years,with the life lost rate of 0.41％o.The average years of potential work lost(AWYPLL)was 9.64 person-years,with the rate of potential work loss of 0.35％o.The standardized potential years of life lost(SPYLL)was 1 825.09 person-years,with the premature death probability of 0.34％,and the life expectancy increased by 0.48 years after removal the causes.AYLL was the highest in the diabetes patients with ketoacidosis,and AWYPLL was the highest in the diabetes patients with renal complications.The prediction equation of GM(1,1)was(t)=228.564287e0.0668(t-1)-213.088 323 and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)was 2.93％.The accuracy level of this predictive model was considered good(grade 2).From 2023 to 2025,the predicted mortality rates of diabetes was 22.05/100 000,23.58/100 000 and 25.20/100 000,respectively,in Siming district.Conclusions The overall mortality rate of diabetes shows an upward trend in Siming district.The comprehensive prevention and control of diabetes especially with the complications should be strengthened.
DiabetesMortalityAnnual percentage change,APCAverage years of life lost(AYLL)Grey model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
