Death characteristics of malignant tumors of digestive in Karamay from 2015 to 2022 and analysis of Grey model prediction
Objective To analyze the characteristics of death with malignant tumors of the digestive system in Karamay city of Xinjiang from 2015 to 2022,and predict the situation of death in the patients with malignant tumors from 2023 to 2027.Methods The death information of people reported by the all levels of medical institutions in Karamay from 2015 to 2022 were collected from China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention Population-based Mortality Surveillance System.Calculate annual percentage change(APC),potential years of life lost(PYLL),potential years of life lost rate(PYLLR),average years of life lost(AYLL).The JoinPoint model and grey prediction model GM(1,1)were used to analyze the trend of crude death rates and predict the crude death rates in next five years.Results The crude and standardized mortality rates of malignancies of digestive system were 67.98/100 000 and 55.76/100 000,respectively,in Karamay from 2015 to 2022.The crude and standardized mortality rates of male(x2=133.413)were higher than those of females(x2=128.659)(P＜0.001).The crude death rate(APC=12.477％,t=4.494,P=0.004)and standardized death rate(APC=7.953％,t=2.294,P=0.042)of colorectal malignancies showed increasing trend.The standardized mortality rates of gastric cancer showed decreasing trend(APC=-9.472％,t=-3.422,P=0.014),and the crude death rates of pancreatic malignancies showed increasing trend(APC=-10.924％,t=3.624,P=0.011).The PYLL caused by malignancies of digestive system was 8 977.50 person-years.The PYLLR was 4.52％and the AYLL was 12.45 years.The predictive results of grey model showed that the crude death rates of malignancies of digestive system increased year by year in Karamay city from 2023 to 2027,and the death rates were 78.70/100 000,81.54/10 0000,84.48/100 000,87.53/100 000,90.69/100 000,respectively.Conclusions The burden of malignant tumors of digestive system is heavy among residents of Karamay.The comprehensive measures should be taken in the key groups of the male,middle-aged and elderly for malignant tumors prevention and treatment.The main direction of intervention is promoting healthy lifestyles such as smoking cessation,alcohol restriction,reasonable exercise and healthy weight.
Malignant tumorsDigestive systemMortalityTrend analysisGrey prediction model
万方数据
