Analysis and prediction of lung cancer epidemic trend in Haicang district of Xiamen city from 2011 to 2020
Objective To understand the trend of prevalence and change of lung cancer in Haicang district of Xiamen city.Methods The data of lung cancer surveillance were collected in the people living in Haicang district from 2011 to 2020.The incidence rate,mortality,China age standardized incidence rate(ASR),world ASR,cumulative rate,truncated rate were calculated for evaluating the prevalence level of lung cancer.The annual percent change(APC)and the average annual percent changes(AAPC)were used to evaluate the trend of the prevalence.The GM(1,1)model was used to predict the incidence rates and mortalities from 2021 to 2025.Results The crude incidence rate of lung cancer was 50.13/105 in Haicang district from 2011 to 2020,with China ASR of 48.22/105 and world ASR of 47.53/105.The truncated rate of the patients aged 35-64 years was 68.09/105,and the cumulative rate of the patients aged 0-74 was 5.86％.The crud death rate was 34.51/105,with China ASR of 33.47/105 and world ASR of 33.06/105.The truncated rate of the patients aged 35-64 years was 35.42/105,and the cumulative rate of the patients aged 0-74 was 4.02％.The incidence rate,mortality and truncated rate in the male were higher than that in the female.From 2011 to 2020,the trend of incidence rates of lung cancer in the people living in Haicang district was not obvious,but the incidence rates of lung cancer in the male showed decreasing trend,with the average annual decreasing rate of 3.67％(AAPC=-3.67,95％CZ:-6.86～-0.36.From 2013 to 2020,the incidences of lung cancer in women showed increasing trend,with the average annual increasing rate of 14.48％(APC=14.48,95％CZ:6.93～22.55).The mortality rates of lung cancer showed decreasing trend,with the average annual decreasing trend of 5.48％(AAPC=5.48,95％CI:-9.26～-1.55)in Haicang district from 2011 to 2020.The incidence rates of the female should increase by GM(1,1)model prediction in Haicang district from 2021 to 2025,and the incidence rates of the male and the death rates of this district could decrease.Conclusions The incidence rate of lung cancer in Haicang district was higher than that of the national average level,and the total mortality decreases year by year.The incidence rates obviously increase in the female and the middle-aged people.All the situation should be pay attention to,and the various forms of health education should be carried out.The awareness of early screening of the people should be strengthened and the normalized diagnosis and treatment should be enhanced for decreasing the incidence and mortality levels of lung cancer.
万方数据
