Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of tuberculosis in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinxing county,Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022,so as to provide theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods The reported number of the confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System,and the data from the statistical yearbook published by the bureau of statistics of Xinxing county were imported into EXCEL for summarizing and arranging.The epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022 were analyzed,and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinxing county was predicted with grey GM(1,1)model in the next three years.Results From 2011 to 2022,a total of 3 976 cases with pulmonary tuberculosis were cumulatively reported in Xinxing county,with an average annual incidence rate of 72.63/100 000,and decreasing trend(trend x2=761.960,P<0.001).There were cases in each season and the maximum number of cases was 1 113 from March to May,accounting for 27.99%,and the minimum was 862 cases in winter from December to February,accounting for 21.68%.The maximum number of the cases was 1 364 in Xincheng town,accounting for 34.41%,and the minimum number of the cases was 44 in Dajiang town,accounting for 1.11%.There were 2 970 male cases,accounting for 74.70%,and 1 006 female cases,accounting for 25.30%,and the ratio of the male to the female was 2.95:1.The number of cases increased with ages(trend x2=1 432.021,P<0.001).The cases aged 55 years and elderly were majority.Farmer cases were the most with 2 787,and accounted for 70.10%.The prediction equation of the grey GM(1,1)model was(x)(k+1)=-5 811.32e 0307k+5 913.46.The predicting results were basically coincidence with the actual results.The predicting incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2023 to 2025 was 35.56/100 000,30.56/100 000 and 25.75/100000,respectively.Conclusions The overall incidence rate of tuberculosis in shows decreasing trend in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022,and it may shows decreasing trend in the next three years.From March to May,for Xincheng town,the male,old people and farmers,the prevention and control strategies of the strengthening of popular science propaganda on tuberculosis prevention and control and regional surveillance,BCG vaccination,improvement of the medical security system for tuberculosis cases could be implemented for curbing the occurrence and spread of pulmonary tuberculosis in the local area.