Application of Polynomial Regression Model in Predicting Dynamic Output Coefficients of Run-of-River Hydropower Stations
In response to the significant deviation observed when using interpolation of design operational characteristic curves for hydropower station output coefficients,as well as the complexity of modeling with multiple factor-derived models,this paper simplifies the factors influencing output coefficients to a single factor:inflow discharge,considering the need for run-of-river hydropower stations to maintain a balance between inflow and outflow.Taking the example of the Karot Hydropower Station,a polynomial modeling analysis is conducted,segmented to fit the model according to the number of operating units.The average deviation of the output coefficients calculated by the model relative to those obtained from curve interpolation is-1.31%,meeting expectations and indicating reliable performance and high accuracy of the model.This method further automates the generation of power generation plans,enhancing the operational management efficiency of the Karot Reservoir,and holds potential for broader application in run-of-river hydropower stations.
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