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基于DPSIR模型的特大城市绿色交通水平评价与影响因素研究

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为科学、准确地对特大城市绿色交通水平进行测度,探索制约特大城市绿色交通发展的关键障碍因子,运用驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response,DSPIR)模型初步构建特大城市的绿色交通水平评价指标体系,结合CRITIC-熵权法对评价指标进行综合赋权,并采用集对分析—可变模糊集模型建立特大城市绿色交通水平评价模型,进一步采用障碍度模型判断制约特大城市绿色交通发展的障碍因子。结果表明:11个特大城市的绿色交通水平均属于"中"级,其时间演化趋势总体呈"先升后降"的波浪型阶段特征;制约特大城市绿色交通发展的关键障碍因子为万人公交车标台数、城市化水平,次要障碍因子分别是人口密度、建成区道路网密度、万人出租汽车拥有量、日均公共汽车客运量、人均公园绿地面积。研究结论揭示了特大城市在绿色交通发展过程中的短板因素,为制定其绿色交通发展政策提供了理论支撑。
Research on Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Green Transportation Level Based on the DPSIR Model
In order to accurately and scientifically access the level of development of green transportation in mega-cities and investigate the key factors that hinder its progress,this paper utilizes the DPSIR(Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)model to establish an initial evaluation index system for the development of green transportation in mega-cities.The indicators are weighted using the CRITIC-Entropy Weight Method.Besides,set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model is utilized to establish the comprehensive evaluation model of green transportation level in mega-cities,while the obstacle degree model is employed to assess the factors hindering the development of green transportation in mega-cities.The results indicate that the state of green transportation in mega-cities can be categorized as"moderate"level,and its temporal progression exhibits a"wavy"pattern.The primary impediments hindering the growth of green transportation in these cities are the number of buses owned per 10,000 inhabitants and the urbanization level;the secondary obstacles include factors such as population density,road network density in built-up areas,the number of taxis owned per 10,000 people,per capita green space in parks,daily bus passenger volume,per capita road area,and the average concentration of inhalable particles.The conclusion of this study reveals the shortcomings of mega-cities in the process of green transportation development and provides theoretical support for the formulation of policies aimed at promoting such development.

mega-citygreen transportation levelDPSIR modelobstacle degree

来逢波、陈卓琪、王雪

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潍坊学院经济管理学院,山东潍坊 261061

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院,山东济南 250357

特大城市 绿色交通水平 DPSIR模型 障碍度

2024

东方论坛
青岛大学

东方论坛

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.116
ISSN:1005-7110
年,卷(期):2024.(5)