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基于区间预测的光伏发电与蓄电池优化调度方法

Interval Prediction-based Optimal Scheduling Method for Coordinating Photovoltaic Generation and Batteries

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为了应对县级市光伏发电与用电需求间的最优调度问题,提出了一种面向蓄电池和光伏发电机的区间预测调度优化方法.该方法分别对发电功率调度、充电/放电(C/D)功率调度和荷电状态(SOC)调度进行决策从而获得最优调度的精确范围.通过雅可比矩阵对不确定可再生参数的符号正负特征进行分析,来获取最优发电功率调度和最优C/D功率调度的精确范围.仿真结果表明,相比于蒙特卡洛方法,该方法的最优 SOC调度的范围更大,能够为县级光伏发电蓄电池和发电机的最优调度提供决策分析.
In order to realize optimal scheduling between photovoltaic generation and electric demand at county level,this paper proposes an interval predictive scheduling optimization method for coordinating batteries and photovoltaic generators.There are three decision variables to be planned in this method,which correspond to power generation schedu-ling,charge/discharge(C/D)power scheduling,and state of charge(SOC)scheduling,respectively,and the accurate range of optimal scheduling can be obtained for any power demand predicted in the interval.This method obtains the exact range of optimal generation power scheduling and optimal C/D power scheduling by analyzing the sign positive and nega-tive characteristics of uncertain renewable parameters using Jacobian matrix.The simulation results show that the optimal SOC scheduling range of this method is larger than that of Monte Carlo method.Our proposal can provide decision analysis for optimal scheduling of batteries and photovoltaic generators at county level.

photovoltaic power generationprediction uncertaintyinterval quadratic programming

蔡天烨

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国网南通供电公司,江苏 南通 216006

光伏发电 预测不确定性 区间二次规划

2024

电工技术
重庆西南信息有限公司(原科技部西南信息中心)

电工技术

影响因子:0.177
ISSN:1002-1388
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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