Prediction of broadcast ephemeris for low Earth orbit satellites based on nonsingular elements
Based on the first type of singular point-free orbital elements,the paper proposed eight models with 17～23 parameters. By extrapolating the fitted parameters,the predicted orbits were obtained,and the relationship between predicted and fitted orbits was investigated,along with an exploration of factors influencing prediction accuracy. Experimental results indicated that increasing the number of parameters significantly improved fitting accuracy. In comparison to the 16-parameter model used for global positioning system (GPS),the 20-parameter model demonstrates a 26.2％ enhancement in prediction accuracy and a 71.2％ improvement in fitting accuracy. Additionally,the paper analyzed the impact of orbital inclination,orbital height,eccentricity,and fitted arc length on prediction accuracy. The study used precise ephemeries from Swarm,gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE),Jason-2,communications/navigation outage forecasting system (C/NOFS) satellites to validate the experimental conclusions.
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