首页|不同台风风场在浙江海域台风浪模拟中的适用性研究

不同台风风场在浙江海域台风浪模拟中的适用性研究

扫码查看
将Holland风场与ERA5 风场相结合,通过引入一个随风速半径变化的权重系数,构建了混合风场,进而利用MIKE21 SW建立了浙江海域台风浪模型.使用Holland风场、ERA5 风场、混合风场作为输入风场模拟1918 号台风"米娜"期间的风速和有效波高,验证结果说明Holland风场和ERA5 风场均无法准确反映真实风场和有效波高,而本文构建的混合风场弥补了两种风场的不足.为验证混合风场在浙江海域是否具有普适性,选取近5 年影响浙江海域最为严重的5 个典型台风进行台风浪数值模拟实验,并开展误差统计分析.结果表明:Holland风场在台风中心周围的风速模拟表现较好,最大风速的平均相对误差为8.62%~10.19%,但 10 m/s以下风速的平均相对误差较大,为 29.76%~44.29%;ERA5 风场在台风中心周围的风速偏小,最大风速的平均相对误差为 17.64%~25.77%,但10 m/s以下风速的平均相对误差比Holland 风场小,为 19.64%~32.00%.对 5 个台风的模拟中,由Holland风场、ERA5 风场和混合风场驱动得到的台风浪有效波高平均相对误差的平均值分别为29.92%、25.62%和22.82%,均方根误差的平均值分别为0.46m、0.42m和0.39 m,一致性指数分别为0.94、0.95和0.96.上述结果说明本文构建的混合风场在浙江海域具有普适性,能够提高台风浪的模拟准确度.
The applicability study of different typhoon wind fields in typhoon wave simulation in Zhejiang sea area
Combined with the Holland wind fields and the ERA5 wind fields,the mixed wind fields was set up by introducing a weight coefficient varying with the radius of wind speed,and a typhoon wave model in Zhejiang sea area was established using MIKE21 SW.Then,the Holland,the ERA5 and the mixed wind fields were used as the input wind fields to simulate the wind speed and the significant wave height during No.1918 typhoon Mitag,respectively.The verification shows that the simulated results obtained using the Holland wind fields and the ERA5 wind fields cannot agree accurately with the observed data,while the mixed wind fields proposed in this study can improve the simulation accuracy.In order to study whether the above conclusion is universal in Zhejiang sea area,five typical typhoons that have the most serious impact on Zhejiang sea area in the recent 5 years were selected for typhoon wave numerical simulations and the error statistical analysis.The results indicate the wind speed around the typhoon center is relatively good using the Holland wind fields and the average relative errors of the maximum wind speed are 8.62%-10.19%,but the average relative errors of the wind speed below 10 m/s is relatively bigger,reaching 29.76%-44.29%.However,the wind speed around the typhoon center using the ERA5 wind fields is smaller than the observed data,and the average relative errors of the maximum wind speed are 17.64%-25.77%,but the average relative errors of wind speed below 10 m/s are smaller than that using the Holland wind fields,which are 19.64%-32.00%.During the five typhoon processes,the average values of the average relative errors of the significant wave height driven by Holland,the ERA5 and the mixed wind fields are 29.92%,25.62%and 22.82%,respectively.Correspondingly,the average root mean square errors are 0.46 m,0.42 m and 0.39 m and the consistency indexes are 0.94,0.95 and 0.96.The above results shows that the mixed wind fields proposed in this study is universal in Zhejiang sea area and can improve the simulation accuracy of typhoon waves.

MIKE21 SWHolland wind fieldsERA5 wind fieldsmixed wind fieldsZhejiang sea areatyphoon wave

陈相宇、于姜梅、沈远、倪云林、陆凡

展开 >

浙江海洋大学 海洋工程装备学院,浙江 舟山 316022

浙江省近海海洋工程环境与生态安全重点实验室,自然资源部第二海洋研究所,浙江 杭州 310012

舟山市生态环境低碳发展中心,浙江 舟山 316021

舟山市自然资源测绘设计中心,浙江 舟山 316021

湖州市南浔区交通局,浙江 湖州 313000

展开 >

MIKE21 SW Holland风场 ERA5风场 混合风场 浙江海域 台风浪

浙江省近海海洋工程环境与生态安全重点实验室开放研究基金项目

CEEES202305

2024

海洋学研究
中国海洋学会 浙江省海洋学会 国家海洋局第二海洋研究所

海洋学研究

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.323
ISSN:1001-909X
年,卷(期):2024.42(2)
  • 27