Research on Comprehensive Measurement of Domestic and International Cycle of China's Economy—Based on the Dual Perspective of Comprehensive Evaluation and World Input-output Model
This paper combines comprehensive evaluation and world input-output model,uses the concatenated data of WIOD and ADB-MRIO and domestic macro-data,and adopts the methods of addition and multiplication to establish a domestic and international cycle measurement index system for China's economy.It comprehensively measures China's domestic and international cycle operation from 2000 to 2022.It is found that the double cycle development index in China is rising rapidly,the domestic cycle index shows an"S-shaped"structure,and the international cycle index shows a fluctuating trend.The domestic cycle plays the main role to some extent,but the driving contribution is not stable.There is great heterogeneity in the development speed and level of each link of the economic cycle.The production links of the two cycles improve rapidly,the distribution and circulation links are improved in stages,and the consumption links are difficult to improve.In addition,by industry,the international competitiveness of intermediate goods in the service sector has weakened,the integration of manufacturing into the global value chain has deepened,and the domestic demand rate of intermediate goods and the domestic supply rate of intermediate inputs have both declined.Therefore,we should continue to improve the operation quality of the two cycles,vigorously develop innovation-driven production,further expand the scale of high-tech product import and export,promote the circulation of production factors in distribution and circulation links,continue to strengthen regional economic and trade cooperation,and accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system,and continue to promote actual outward investment and overseas economic and trade cooperation.
Domestic and International CycleComprehensive MeasurementWorld Input-output Model