首页|中国经济国内国际双循环的综合测度研究——基于综合评价和世界投入产出模型的双重视角

中国经济国内国际双循环的综合测度研究——基于综合评价和世界投入产出模型的双重视角

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本文结合综合评价和世界投入产出模型,利用WIOD与ADB-MRIO的拼接数据及国内宏观数据,采用加法及乘法合成混合的分层确权方法,构建我国经济国内国际双循环测度指标体系,综合测度了 2000-2022 年我国双循环运行情况.研究发现:我国双循环发展指数呈较快上升态势,国内大循环指数呈现"S型"结构特征,国际循环指数呈波动震荡态势.其中,国内大循环呈现一定主体作用,但拉动贡献并不稳定;经济循环的各环节发展速度、水平均存在较大异质性,两个循环的生产环节均提升较快,分配流通环节提升具有阶段性,消费环节提升较为艰难.此外,分行业看,服务业部门中间品的国际竞争力有所减弱,制造业融入全球价值链程度加深,中间品的国内需求率和中间投入品的本国供给率均有所下降.因此,要继续提升两个循环的运行质量,生产端大力发展创新驱动、进一步扩大高技术产品进出口规模,分配流通环节进一步促进生产要素流通、持续加强区域经贸合作,消费端加快培育完整内需体系、持续推进对外实际投资和境外经贸合作.
Research on Comprehensive Measurement of Domestic and International Cycle of China's Economy—Based on the Dual Perspective of Comprehensive Evaluation and World Input-output Model
This paper combines comprehensive evaluation and world input-output model,uses the concatenated data of WIOD and ADB-MRIO and domestic macro-data,and adopts the methods of addition and multiplication to establish a domestic and international cycle measurement index system for China's economy.It comprehensively measures China's domestic and international cycle operation from 2000 to 2022.It is found that the double cycle development index in China is rising rapidly,the domestic cycle index shows an"S-shaped"structure,and the international cycle index shows a fluctuating trend.The domestic cycle plays the main role to some extent,but the driving contribution is not stable.There is great heterogeneity in the development speed and level of each link of the economic cycle.The production links of the two cycles improve rapidly,the distribution and circulation links are improved in stages,and the consumption links are difficult to improve.In addition,by industry,the international competitiveness of intermediate goods in the service sector has weakened,the integration of manufacturing into the global value chain has deepened,and the domestic demand rate of intermediate goods and the domestic supply rate of intermediate inputs have both declined.Therefore,we should continue to improve the operation quality of the two cycles,vigorously develop innovation-driven production,further expand the scale of high-tech product import and export,promote the circulation of production factors in distribution and circulation links,continue to strengthen regional economic and trade cooperation,and accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system,and continue to promote actual outward investment and overseas economic and trade cooperation.

Domestic and International CycleComprehensive MeasurementWorld Input-output Model

都田秀佳

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国家统计局统计科学研究所

国内国际双循环 综合测度 世界投入产出

2025

调研世界
中国统计学会

调研世界

影响因子:0.695
ISSN:1004-7794
年,卷(期):2025.(1)