Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Karstic Springs in Northern China: A Case Study of the Liulin Springs
China is one of the most karst well-developed countries, and one quarter of the world karst regions distributes in China. Karst groundwater is the main supply source for industry, agriculture) and living water in northern China. Discharging of karst springs in northern China, however, has been declining from 1950s. There are two reasons for attenuation: climate change and human activities. This paper focused on the effect of two factors on karst springs in northern China. The Liulin Springs, as a representative of karst springs in northern China, was selected as the study area. By analyzing the spring flow and groundwater development, it is found that the Liulin Springs were in natural conditions before 1973. Based on the flowing volumes of the springs from 1957 to 1973, this research constructed a grey system model of spring flowing under natural conditions, which was used to acquire a spring flowing volume from 1974 to 2005. By comparison of this figure with actual tested ones in the same period, the effect of human activities on spring flowing and decaying has been estimated. The result shows that from 1974 to 2005, the contribution of climate change to spring flow decaying accounts for only 8. 1% 8. 6% of total effect by human activities, suggesting that the latter plays a vital role in decay of spring flowing. Of all the human activities, groundwater development accounts for 20%~35%, while other factors such as over-exploitation of groundwater in vicinity areas, construction of reservoirs, ecosystem destruction, and mine drainage etc. account for 65%—80%. Therefore, it is unscientific that evaluation of spring flowing and decay is only and simply based on the exploitation amount of groundwater, which would lead us make the wrong decision to environment.
anthropogenic influenceclimate changegrey systemspring flow decayingGM (1, 1) model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
