摘要
自然灾害对中国粮食产量仍然有较大影响.本文测算1980-2020年全国自然灾害和粮食产量的脱钩情况,为进一步考察粮食产量韧性的影响因素,构建基于稻谷、小麦和玉米产量的驱动因素模型,利用2010-2020年各地区空间面板数据,选取空间杜宾模型进行计量分析.结果表明,近40年来中国自然灾害与粮食产量的脱钩状态呈现出波动式上升趋势,说明改革开放以来,中国粮食防灾减灾能力建设成效显著;粮食产量与受灾面积、抗灾能力存在空间依赖关系;各地区抗灾能力存在较大差异,粮食主产区应该加强农业防灾减灾能力专项建设,以巩固粮食安全根基.
Abstract
Natural disasters have a large impact on China's grain output.This paper measures the impact using the spatial panel data.It is found that during the past 40 years,China's grain disaster prevention and resilience capacity has been effective since the reform and opening up;There is a spatial dependence between grain output and disaster-affected areas and disaster resistance;The disaster-resistance varies among regions,and the main grain areas should strengthen the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity to realize food security.
维普
万方数据