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双碳背景下中国与主要发达国家电力低碳转型比较

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中国火电行业排放的CO2占比超过40%,电力低碳转型是实现碳中和的关键。但由于中国能源消费仍持续增长,实现碳达峰特别是碳中和面临时间短任务重的巨大挑战。本文通过比较美国、德国、英国和日本4个主要经济发达国家电力低碳转型途径,借鉴其成功经验,结合中国的实际情况,提出适合中国国情的电力低碳转型路径。研究结果表明:(1)低碳转型必须以电力安全、能源资源禀赋、能源市场供给、经济发展水平与承受能力等为基础;(2)2023年中国发电量占全球总量的31。9%,位居全球第一;发达国家中美国是美洲第一、全球第二;德国和英国分列欧洲第一和第二;日本在亚太地区发达国家中位列第一;(3)相比2005年,除美国外,德国、英国、日本年发电量均呈下降趋势,而中国的发电量增长了278。6%;(4)美国、德国、英国、日本在大力发展低碳电力的同时,都致力于降低煤炭发电量的比例,推进"去煤化、去煤电化";中国应借鉴发达国家的经验,采用煤电提效+替代型转型政策。(5)降低化石能源发电量占比是电力低碳转型的重要手段,中国正在主动减少化石能源发电量占比,并取得良好成效,此外中国不宜大幅提高气电发电量占比。
Comparison of low-carbon transformation in electricity between China and major developed countries under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality
CO2 emissions from China's thermal power industry account for more than 40%.The low carbon transformation of the electricity industry is the key to achieving carbon neutrality.However,as China's energy consumption continues to grow,achieving carbon peaking,especially carbon neutrality,is facing a huge challenge with a short time and heavy tasks.The low-carbon transformation approaches in four major economically developed countries were compared,including the United States,Germany,the United Kingdom,and Japan.The successful experiences from these countries is an object and combine China's actual situation to propose a low-carbon power transformation path suitable for China's national conditions.The results were shown below:(1)The low-carbon transformation must be based on power security,energy resource endowment,energy market supply,economic development level and affordability,etc.(2)In 2023,China's power generation accounted for 31.9%of the global total,and ranked first in the world.Among the developed countries,the United States was the first in the Americas and the second in the world.Germany and the United Kingdom ranked first and second in Europe respectively.Japan ranked first among the developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region.(3)Compared with 2005,except for the United States,the annual power generation of Germany,the United Kingdom,and Japan had shown a downward trend,while China's power generation had increased by 278.6%.(4)While vigorously developing low-carbon power,the United States,Germany,the United Kingdom,and Japan were all committed to reducing the proportion of coal-fired power generation and promoting'de-coalification and de-coal-electrification'.China should draw on the experience of developed countries and adopted the transformation policy of improving the efficiency of coal-fired power+substitution.(5)Reducing the proportion of fossil energy power generation is an important means for the low-carbon transformation of the power industry.China is actively reducing the proportion of fossil energy power generation and has achieved good results.In addition,China should not significantly increase the proportion of gas-fired power generation.

carbon peaking and carbon neutralityelectricity industrymajor developed countrieslow-carbon transformationcomparison

朱法华、徐静馨

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低碳智能燃煤发电与超净排放全国重点实验室(国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司),江苏 南京 210023

南京信息工程大学 江苏省大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210044

双碳背景 电力行业 主要发达国家 低碳转型 对比

2024

电力科技与环保
国电科学技术研究院

电力科技与环保

影响因子:0.653
ISSN:1674-8069
年,卷(期):2024.40(6)