Risk prediction of liquefiable solid bulk cargoes during sea transportation
In order to effectively control the ship capsizing risk caused by liquefaction of liquefiable solid bulk cargo during sea transport,based on ship kinematics and wave energy theo-ry,AWQA hydrodynamic analysis software was used to simu-late and analyze the external environmental loads encountered by ships while sailing in various typical sea areas,and the e-quivalent analysis of the liquefaction risk of the cargo and the related assessment model was carried out according to the the-ory of soil dynamics and results of triaxial tests,and on this basis,the risk assessment model for cargo liquefaction was constructed.Based on the risk assessment model and its nu-merical calculation samples,a fast prediction model for cargo liquefaction risk was completed by using the BP neural net-work algorithm,thereby achieving fast and intelligent predic-tion of cargo maritime liquefaction risk,and the explicit ex-pression of the BP fast prediction model was obtained by the weight matrix and threshold matrix of the model.The predic-tion model was used to quickly predict the liquefaction risk of four typical liquid solid bulk cargo shipping environments,and the prediction results were consistent with the evaluation model results.This prediction model can quickly and effec-tively predict the liquefaction risk of liquid solid bulk cargo in marine transportation based on parameters such as ship type and sea conditions,providing a safety method for frontline maritime supervision and promoting the development of IMS-BC rules.
万方数据
维普
