Causal pathways analysis of coastal water traffic accidents in China
To explore the causal pathway of various water traf-fic accidents in China coast,a causal pathway analysis meth-od for water traffic accidents was proposed based on human factors analysis and classification system(HF ACS)model,Bayesian network(BN)model and pathway model.Firstly,based on the HFACS model,5 levels including 38 causal fac-tors for water traffic accidents were identified from the investi-gation report of water traffic accidents in China coast.Second-ly,the K2 algorithm was used for BN structure learning,and combined with chi-square test results and prior knowledge to determine the BN structure.Next,the maximum expectation algorithm was utilized to BN parameter learning,the sensitivi-ty analysis method was used to extract the causal pathway of various water traffic accidents.Finally,the pathway model was applied to calculate the causal pathway coefficients of va-rious water traffic accidents and test their statistical signifi-cance.Results show that there are respectively 7,6,3,7,4,4,and 2 significant causative pathways for accidents such as collision,sinking,contact,grounding,fire/explosion,wind strike,and stranding in China coast.From the perspective of effect level of causal pathway,the largest causal pathway of both contact accidents and stranding accidents is"improper allocation of chart data → improper navigation plan → con-tact/stranding accident".
China coastwater traffic accidentscausal path-wayBayesian networkpathway model
万方数据
维普
