大连海事大学学报2024,Vol.50Issue(3) :113-121.DOI:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.03.013

考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型

A passenger ship evacuation model considering the influence of panic emotion

张晓 谢启苗 王亦田
大连海事大学学报2024,Vol.50Issue(3) :113-121.DOI:10.16411/j.cnki.issn1006-7736.2024.03.013

考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型

A passenger ship evacuation model considering the influence of panic emotion

张晓 1谢启苗 2王亦田3
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作者信息

  • 1. 上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306
  • 2. 上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306;合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院,合肥 230009
  • 3. 上海外高桥造船有限公司,上海 200137
  • 折叠

摘要

为研究客船人员恐慌情绪传播的影响,基于人格O-CEAN模型和SEIRS传染病模型,建立P-SEIRS恐慌情绪感染模型,结合Anylogic疏散仿真软件建立考虑恐慌情绪感染的人员疏散模型,分析恐慌情绪传播下客船人员的疏散过程,探究初始恐慌人员比例、敏感度、设备干预及引导者数量对恐慌情绪传播和疏散效率的影响.仿真结果表明:恐慌人员会加剧拥堵状况,导致疏散时间增加;人群敏感度越高,恐慌情绪传播越快,疏散过程中会产生更多恐慌行人;设备干预及适量的引导者有利于提高乘客的疏散效率,但过多的引导者则会延长疏散时间.

Abstract

In order to study the influence of panic emotion transmission among passenger ship personnel,a P-SEIRS panic emotion infection model was established based on the personality OCEAN model and SEIRS infectious disease mod-el. A personnel evacuation model considering panic emotion infection was established by using Anylogic evacuation simula-tion software,the evacuation process of passenger ship per-sonnel under panic emotion transmission was analyzed,and the influence of initial panic personnel proportion,sensitivity,equipment intervention,and number of guides on panic emo-tion transmission and evacuation efficiency was explored. The simulation results show that panicked individuals will exacer-bate congestion,leading to an increase in evacuation time;the higher the sensitivity of the crowd,the faster the spread of panic emotions,and more panicked pedestrians will be gener-ated during the evacuation process;equipment intervention and appropriate guidance are beneficial for improving passen-ger evacuation efficiency,but excessive guidance can prolong evacuation time.

关键词

客船人员/疏散模型/恐慌情绪/P-SEIRS模型/Anylogic仿真软件

Key words

passenger ship personnel/evacuation model/panic emotion/P-SEIRS model/Anylogic simulation software

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503166)

中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M690851)

出版年

2024
大连海事大学学报
大连海事大学

大连海事大学学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.469
ISSN:1006-7736
参考文献量28
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