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考虑恐慌情绪影响的客船人员疏散模型

A passenger ship evacuation model considering the influence of panic emotion

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为研究客船人员恐慌情绪传播的影响,基于人格O-CEAN模型和SEIRS传染病模型,建立P-SEIRS恐慌情绪感染模型,结合Anylogic疏散仿真软件建立考虑恐慌情绪感染的人员疏散模型,分析恐慌情绪传播下客船人员的疏散过程,探究初始恐慌人员比例、敏感度、设备干预及引导者数量对恐慌情绪传播和疏散效率的影响.仿真结果表明:恐慌人员会加剧拥堵状况,导致疏散时间增加;人群敏感度越高,恐慌情绪传播越快,疏散过程中会产生更多恐慌行人;设备干预及适量的引导者有利于提高乘客的疏散效率,但过多的引导者则会延长疏散时间.
In order to study the influence of panic emotion transmission among passenger ship personnel,a P-SEIRS panic emotion infection model was established based on the personality OCEAN model and SEIRS infectious disease mod-el. A personnel evacuation model considering panic emotion infection was established by using Anylogic evacuation simula-tion software,the evacuation process of passenger ship per-sonnel under panic emotion transmission was analyzed,and the influence of initial panic personnel proportion,sensitivity,equipment intervention,and number of guides on panic emo-tion transmission and evacuation efficiency was explored. The simulation results show that panicked individuals will exacer-bate congestion,leading to an increase in evacuation time;the higher the sensitivity of the crowd,the faster the spread of panic emotions,and more panicked pedestrians will be gener-ated during the evacuation process;equipment intervention and appropriate guidance are beneficial for improving passen-ger evacuation efficiency,but excessive guidance can prolong evacuation time.

passenger ship personnelevacuation modelpanic emotionP-SEIRS modelAnylogic simulation software

张晓、谢启苗、王亦田

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上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306

合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院,合肥 230009

上海外高桥造船有限公司,上海 200137

客船人员 疏散模型 恐慌情绪 P-SEIRS模型 Anylogic仿真软件

国家自然科学基金资助项目中国博士后科学基金资助项目

715031662021M690851

2024

大连海事大学学报
大连海事大学

大连海事大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.469
ISSN:1006-7736
年,卷(期):2024.50(3)