In order to evaluate the operation risk of freeway operating buses,a method based on GPS data is proposed by using fuzzy Bayesian network.Two types of risk factors and specific risk assessment indexes were determined,and the Bayesian network topology of the risk was constructed by using GeNIe software.The eval-uation set of four levels of safe,relatively safe,dangerous and relatively dangerous was established,member-ship degree was calculated,membership degree matrix was constructed by using the reduced half ladder distri-bution function,and the transformation formula from membership degree to probability was determined.Final-ly,the operation risk results of freeway operating buses were calculated by using GeNIe software,and the risk level was determined according to the principle of maximum membership.The results show that the evaluation model can realize the quantitative,grade evaluation of the operation risk of operating buses on freeways and i-dentify the sections with poor safety.The example of G12 Hui Wu Freeway section from Jilin to Changchun Longjia Airport verifies the effectiveness of the evaluation method.
关键词
交通工程/运行风险评估/模糊贝叶斯网络/高速公路/营运客车
Key words
traffic and transportation engineering/operational risk assessment/fuzzy Bayesian networks/free-way/operating bus
维普
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