The data of variable passenger flow which can impact the vehicle load is analyzed,and 18 hour pas-senger flow data section of subway vehicle which is base on a subway operational line is collected.The subway wheel wear simulation is established by Simpack based on the actual parameters of vehicle and line including the module of vehicle dynamics,the scrolling module of wheel and track,the simulation module of wheel wear and the variable load module.The subway vehicle wheel wear is analyzed by constant load and variable load,and acquire wheel outline and distribution law of wheel wear which the vehicle operate 50,80 and 140 thou-sands of kilometers.There is a larger difference between the constant load simulation and the variable load simulation results where the variable load simulation result is more close the data of measure of wheel wear.With the increase of operation distance,the maximum wheel wear depth,position and growth rate are close the measure of wheel wear.The variable load simulation based on the dynamic passenger flow is more precise than constant load simulation,and it can supply the subway wheel wear forecast and wheel rotary repair.