首页|Investigating the critical influencing factors of snowmelt runoff and development of a mid-long term snowmelt runoff forecasting

Investigating the critical influencing factors of snowmelt runoff and development of a mid-long term snowmelt runoff forecasting

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Snowmelt runoff is a vital source of fresh water in cold regions.Accurate snowmelt runoff forecasting is crucial in supporting the integrated management of water resources in these regions.However,the performances of such forecasts are often very low as they involve many meteorological factors and complex physical processes.Aiming to improve the understanding of these influencing factors on snowmelt runoff forecast,this study investi-gated the time lag of various meteorological factors before identifying the key factor in snowmelt processes.The results show that solar radiation,followed by temperature,are the two critical influencing factors with time lags being 0 and 2 days,respectively.This study further quantifies the effect of the two factors in terms of their contribution rate using a set of empirical equations developed.Their contribution rates as to yearly snowmelt runoff are found to be 56％and 44％,respectively.A mid-long term snowmelt forecasting model is de-veloped using machine learning techniques and the identified most critical influencing factor with the biggest contribution rate.It is shown that forecasting based on Supporting Vector Regression(SVR)method can meet the requirements of forecast standards.

snowmelt runoffmid-long term forecastSVRcold regions

ZHAO Hongling、LI Hongyan、XUAN Yunqing、BAO Shanshan、CIDAN Yangzong、LIU Yingying、Li Changhai、YAO Meichu

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College of New Energy and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China

Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment,Ministry of Education,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China

Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China

Department of Civil Engineering,Swansea University Bay Campus,Fabian Way,Swansea SA1 8EN,UK

Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China

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Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China

42230204

2023

10.1007/s11442-023-2131-9

地理学报(英文版)
中国地理学会,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报(英文版)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.307
ISSN：1009-637X
年,卷(期)：2023.33(6)
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