首页|Climate-driven changes in drought metrics across the Yellow River Basin based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

Climate-driven changes in drought metrics across the Yellow River Basin based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

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Recent climate change has accelerated the global hydrological cycle,substantially affecting drought metrics such as drought duration and drought propagation;however,knowledge of drought patterns in these metrics remains limited.Here,we aimed to address the evolution and influencing factors of major drought metrics under past and future climate scenarios within the Yellow River Basin(YRB)based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Accordingly,we investigated the changes in drought duration for meteorological drought and agricultural drought across the YRB and identified the variability in drought propagation time from meteorological drought to agricultural drought by using a standardized precipitation/soil moisture index and run theory.Meteorological and agricultural drought duration,and propagation time,increased from 1850 to 2014,decreased significantly from 2015 to 2100 with change trends of-0.0027,-0.0197,and-0.002 month/year,respec-tively.Drought duration had a negative sensitivity to humidification,and agricultural drought was more sensitive than meteorological drought.Propagation time exhibited a greater sensi-tivity to meteorological humidification than agricultural humidification.The results also sug-gest that precipitation,evapotranspiration,and soil moisture are the main drivers of drought metric changes,with air temperature and crop cover exhibiting a strong indirect effect on drought metrics in the YRB.Decreased propagation time from meteorological to agricultural drought and decreased duration provide evidence for the accelerated occurrence and in-creased impact of drought,highlighting the importance of a more comprehensive under-standing of drought metric changes under rapid climate change.

drought durationdrought propagationclimate changehumidificationYellow River BasinCMIP6

LIU Jiayuan、LIU Xianfeng、LIANG Juan、FENG Yu

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School of Geography and Tourist,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China

Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin,Eastern Institute for Advanced Study,Ningbo 315200,Zhejiang,China

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaGeneral Project of Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi ProvinceSocial Science Foundation of Shaanxi ProvinceFundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesOpen Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology of China

42171095423711232024SF-YBXM-5322020D039GK202201008SKLURE2022-2-1

2024

10.1007/s11442-024-2273-4

地理学报(英文版)
中国地理学会,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.307
ISSN：1009-637X
年,卷(期)：2024.34(9)
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