Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River
The hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used to analyze the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, and to predict the variation trend for future flows. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Annual mean flow shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of Yellow River, and there are periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a. 2) The precipitation decrease due to the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon as well as the increasing evaporation and the degenerating frozen soil in global warming are the climate origin of decreasing flow. 3) Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of Yellow River are likely to decrease in the next 20 years.
climate changesurface water resourcemonsoonfrozen soilclimate modelthe source region of Yellow River
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
