Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Streamflow in the Water Source Area of Baiyangdian Lake
As the largest wetland in the North China Plain, Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCR In the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental problems. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of upper Tanghe catchment from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly (P > 0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decrease in streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%-62%. Therefore, human activities played a dominant influence in the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum eco-water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.
climate variabilityhuman activitiesclimate elasticityhydrological modelBaiyangdian LakeTanghe River
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
