中国目前正经历着城市化转型,科学合理的空间政策是城市可持续发展的重要保障,因此开展政策情景实验、辅助空间决策具有重要现实意义.本文构建了土地利用—交通集成模型,模拟城市活动空间分布,称作SDA(Spatial Distribution of Activities)模型.该模型主要包含4个子模型:交通模型、家庭区位模型、经济活动区位模型、房租模型;并以北京市为例模拟土地利用政策对城市空间发展的影响.研究表明,延续过去5年(2009-2013年)房地产开发模式至2030年,则由于周边房地产开发数量较高、房租较低,越来越多的人口和企业将向郊区聚集(增长速度更大).该趋势与目前疏解北京社会经济活动、缓解交通拥堵的规划目标相一致,模型可以很好地检验土地利用政策情景影响.而“基于活动”的模型被认为是模型发展趋势,因此,本文构建的SDA模型不仅可以检验不同政策对城市空间影响、辅助城市空间决策,也有助于推动LUTI模型的发展及其在国内的应用,丰富和发展国内城市空间模拟分析的研究内容.
Modelling urban spatial impacts of land-use/transport policies
China is now experiencing rapid urbanizatioin.Powerful tools are required to assess its urban spatial policies toward a more competitive and sustainable development paradigm.This study develops a Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) model to evaluate the urban activity impacts of urban land-use policies.The model consists of four sub-models,i.e.,transport,residential location,employment location and real estate rent.It is then applied to Beijing metropolitan area to forecast the urban activity evolution trend based on the land use policies between 2009 and 2013.The modeling results show that more and more residents and employers in the city choose to stay in the outskirts,and new centers have gradually emerged to share the services originally delivered by central Beijing.The general trend verifies the objectives of the government plan to develop more sub-centers around Beijing.The proposed activity-based model provides a distinct tool for the urban spatial policy makers in China.Further research is also discussed in the end.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
