首页|基于流域系统模拟一情景优化的精细治理决策支持方法

基于流域系统模拟一情景优化的精细治理决策支持方法

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面向美丽中国生态文明建设所需,亟待有效实现流域精细治理的科学决策,以根据流域综合治理愿景目标,优化流域管理措施(BMP)的空间布局方案(即BMP情景)、制定符合实际需求的实施路线图.对此,"流域系统模拟—情景优化"方法框架近年展现出广阔应用前景.本文介绍了该框架在应对实际应用需求中尚存的一系列问题,开展了体系性的方法研究:①提出新的流域过程建模框架,以兼顾建模灵活性和高性能计算、高效实现流域系统模拟;②提出以坡位单元作为BMP空间配置单元、并在情景优化过程中可进行单元边界动态调整的BMP情景优化方法,可有效考虑流域综合治理的经验知识,保障优化结果合理性;③提出考虑分阶段投资约束的BMP情景实施次序优化方法,可推荐出符合实际落地需求的实施路线图;④设计研发用户友好的参与式流域规划系统,供各方利益相关者协商决策.通过典型小流域应用案例验证了上述新方法、工具和原型系统的有效性和实用价值.
Methods for supporting decision-making of precision watershed management based on watershed system simulation and scenario optimization
The construction of China's ecological civilization,known as"Beautiful China",necessitates implementing precision watershed management through scientifically informed decision-making.This entails optimizing the spatial distribution of watershed best management practices(the so-called BMP scenario)and proposing multistage implementation plans,or roadmaps that align with practical requirements based on the overarching vision of comprehensive watershed management.The"watershed system simulation-scenario optimization"method framework(the simulation-and-optimization-based framework for short)has demonstrated considerable potential in recent years.To address challenges arising from practical applications of this framework,this study systematically conducted the methodological research:(1)proposing a novel watershed process modeling framework that strikes a balance between modeling flexibility and high-performance computing to model and simulate watershed systems efficiently;(2)introducing slope position units as BMP configuration units and enabling dynamic boundary adjustments during scenario optimization,effectively incorporating practical knowledge of watershed management to ensure reasonable outcomes;(3)presenting an optimization method for determining the implementation orders of BMPs that considers stepwise investment constraints,thereby recommending feasible roadmaps that meet practical needs;and(4)designing a user-friendly participatory watershed planning system to facilitate collaborative decision-making among stakeholders.The effectiveness and practical value of these new methods,tools,and prototype systems are validated through application cases in a representative small watershed.This research contributes to advancing precision watershed management and provides valuable insights for sustainable ecological conservation.The methods proposed within the simulation-and-optimization-based framework in this study are universal methods,which means their application does not depend on the specific implementation,such as the watershed process model,the BMP types considered,the designed BMP configuration strategy,and so on.Further studies should be conducted not only to deepen related theory and method research but also to strengthen promotion and application,especially cooperating with local watershed management agents to provide valuable insights for their sustainable ecological conservation.

watershed system simulationwatershed management practicescenario analysisintelligent optimizationdecision support

秦承志、朱良君、申申、吴彤、肖桂荣、吴升、陈芸芝、汪小钦、冯险峰、朱阿兴、陆锋

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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101

中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049

数字中国研究院(福建),福州 350108

福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室,福州 350108

南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023

威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校地理系,美国麦迪逊WI 53706

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流域系统模拟 流域管理措施 情景分析 智能优化 决策支持

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主创新项目

XDA231005034210148041871362KPI003

2024

地理学报
中国地理学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.3
ISSN:0375-5444
年,卷(期):2024.79(1)
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