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青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度时空动态演进特征

Spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of PM2.5 concentrations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on county scale

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青藏高原地区的大气污染防治不仅是打赢蓝天保卫战的有力举措,也是维护青藏高原生态安全屏障、实现高原经济高质量发展和可持续发展的必然要求.基于长时间序列和高空间分辨率的PM2.5数据,采用空间自相关模型分析青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度的静态空间关联特征,结合传统和空间Kernel密度估计探究PM2.5浓度的分布动态演进和长期转移趋势,最后运用空间马尔可夫链刻画青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度的空间转移特征.结果表明:①青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度起步较高且空间锁定特征显著,新疆南部、青海省的柴达木盆地、西宁市和海东市内区县始终是PM2.5高排放地区;②青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度呈现显著的空间关联特征,局部空间关联主要以H-H和L-L两种同质性空间关联类型为主;③青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度呈现整体下降的分布动态演进特征,局部差异仍显较大,考虑相邻地区的空间影响时,表现出空间收敛模式和显著的空间正相关性;3期时间滞后条件下,PM2.5浓度高值区的虹吸效应增强,地区之间的相互作用影响着青藏高原PM2.5浓度的未来空间分布.④青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度的空间转移趋势稳定,难以实现县域尺度单元上的跳跃式转移.本文可为识别青藏高原县域尺度PM2.5浓度空间动态演进特征,实施精准化的大气污染防治政策,进而促进高原地区大气污染防控和生态文明建设提供理论参考.
The prevention and control of air pollution in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)is imperative to meet the goals of the Blue-Sky Protection Campaign,to protect the ecological security barrier,and to achieve high-quality and sustainable economic development.Based on the long time-series fine particulate matter(PM2.5)data with a high spatial resolution,the spatial autocorrelation model was adopted to analyze the static spatial correlation characteristics of county-scale PM2.5 concentrations in the QTP.Furthermore,the dynamic evolution and long-term transfer trend of PM2.5 distribution were explored by combining traditional and spatial kernel density estimation.Finally,the spatial Markov chain model was used to characterize the spatial transfer characteristics of county-scale PM2.5 concentrations in the study area.The results showed that:(1)On the county scale,the PM2.5 concentrations started with a higher value,and the spatial lock-in characteristics were significant.PM2.5 emissions were high in the following areas:southern Xinjiang,and Qaidam Basin,Xining city,and Haidong city of Qinghai province.(2)The county-scale PM2.5 concentrations presented significant spatial correlation characteristics,and the local spatial correlation was mainly dominated by two homogeneous spatial correlations:H-H and L-L.(3)The PM2.5 concentrations in counties of the QTP showed an overall decline in the distribution and dynamic evolution,and the local differences were still large.Furthermore,there was a"club convergence"phenomenon when spatial conditions were not considered.When the spatial influence of adjacent regions was considered,the spatial convergence pattern and significant spatial positive correlation were presented.Under the condition of a three-period time lag,the"siphon effect"in the area with high PM2.5 concentrations was enhanced.Additionally,the results revealed that the combined effect of PM2.5 emissions from different regions would affect the future spatial distribution of PM2.5 in the QTP.(4)The spatial transfer trend of PM2.5 concentrations was stable at the county level,and it is difficult to realize the jump transfer in the level of county units.This study provides a theoretical reference for identifying the spatial dynamic evolution characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations in the QTP on the county scale and implementing targeted air pollution prevention and control measures to construct ecological civilization in the plateau region.

PM2.5spatial correlationdynamic evolutionspatial dynamic kernel density estimationQinghai-Tibet Plateau

刘庆芳、谢佳亮、张先甜、徐勇、宋金平

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北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

华南理工大学旅游管理系,广州 510006

湖南师范大学旅游学院,长沙 410081

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

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PM2.5 空间关联 动态演进 空间动态Kernel密度估计 青藏高原

青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(第二次)

2019QZKK0406

2024

地理学报
中国地理学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.3
ISSN:0375-5444
年,卷(期):2024.79(3)
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