摘要
借助1998-2015年中国工业企业数据库,构建包含1110个县和376个4位码行业的县域制造业产业数据集,采用演化经济地理学中的产业演化视角,使用三重差分方法探究撤县设区对于县域制造业产业升级的因果效应.实证结果表明:①撤县设区以后,县域更容易进入高知识复杂度的制造业产业,同时更容易退出低知识复杂度的产业.而无论对于产业进入还是产业退出,撤县设区的影响在时间上都有滞后性.②从宏观县域层面来看,撤县设区通过提升人口集聚程度、提高经济发展水平、改善基础设施和公共服务的途径促进县域制造业产业升级;从微观企业层面来看,撤县设区通过提高产出、促进中间投入、提升利润、增强创新能力和降低税负的方式促进县域制造业产业升级.③撤县设区对于东部地区县域的制造业产业升级的促进作用最大,而在中部地区,撤县设区对于县域制造业产业升级甚至存在显著的负面影响.本文的发现既能够为中国未来合理推进撤县设区提供一定的经验支撑,也能够丰富现有演化经济地理学关于区域产业演化研究的制度视角.
Abstract
County has long been the basic unit of national governance in China.Yet,only limited policy attention has been paid to counties.Recently,the central government proposed to carry out county-level urbanization to further deepen the people-centered new urbanization strategy.In this situation,counties need to provide enough jobs and decent income for rural emigrants.However,this is only the case for a small fraction of counties with prosperous local economies,and most of the rest counties need to enhance their industrial development to absorb the rural emigrants.Since China's industrialization process is largely influenced by the government,boundary adjustment,such as turning counties into urban districts,may also influence the local industrial development in various ways.Relying on the National Annual Survey of Industrial Firms Database(1998-2015),this paper constructs a county manufacturing industry dataset with 1110 counties and 376 four-digit level industries.With an Evolutionary Economic Geography approach,this paper explores the causal impacts of turning counties into districts on counties'manufacturing upgrading by employing difference in differences in differences method(DID).The empirical results show that,first,after turning counties into districts,counties have higher probabilities to enter more complex industries and exit less complex industries.And in both cases,the impacts of turning counties into districts has a time lag.Second,at the macro county level,turning counties into districts could benefit manufacturing upgrading through population agglomeration,economic development,infrastructure construction,and public service improvement;at the micro firm level,turning counties into districts could upgrade manufacturing industries by promoting output,intermediate inputs,profit,innovation,and tax reduction.Turning counties into districts has the largest impact on manufacturing upgrading in the eastern region and has negative impact in the central region.These findings could not only provide empirical support for the future implementation of turning counties into districts,but also enrich the institutional perspective of Evolutionary Economic Geography on regional industrial evolution.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据