Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of cholera epidemics in Hubei province from 1850 to 1949
Cholera is one of the three virulent infectious diseases in humans.Based on the perspective of historical medical geography,we collected and sorted out modem cholera historical materials and environmental data,and used methods such as M-K test,wavelet analysis,GIS spatial analysis,and structural equation model to study the spatio-temporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of the cholera epidemic in modem Hubei province.The results show that:(1)From 1850 to 1949,cholera epidemics in Hubei can be divided into four periods:the Xiantong period of the late Qing Dynasty(1850-1874),the Guangxuan period of the late Qing Dynasty(1875-1911),the early Republic of China(1912-1927),and the middle and late Republic of China(1928-1949),and the frequency of cholera epidemics gradually increased.(2)From 1850 to 1949,there were 49 cholera epidemic years in the province.The cholera epidemic in 1932 was the most serious,and the frequency of cholera epidemics increased significantly after 1942.Cholera epidemics mainly occurred in summer and autumn,with fluctuation cycles on the time scales of 35 a,19 a,10 a,and 5 a.The 10 a time scale was the first main cycle,followed by the 35 a time scale.(3)From 1850 to 1949,58 counties had cholera epidemics.The county clustering characteristics of cholera frequency were obvious.The high-value areas were distriuted in the three towns of Wuhan and their surroundings,and the low-value areas were in western Hubei.The cholera epidemic areas expanded along the rivers and lakes from the central Jianghan Plain to the surrounding mountainous areas.The Jianghan Plain was the area with the most serious cholera epidemics.The distribution center of the cholera epidemics swung in the center of the Jianghan Plain,showing a slight trend of migrating from southeast to northwest.(4)Natural factors,disaster factors and humanistic factors jointly affected the spatio-temporal characteristics of the cholera epidemics in modern Hubei.Regional differences in altitude,population,precipitation,river network and road networks presented the spatial pattern of the cholera epidemics in Hubei as"more cases in the east and less in the west".Wars,floods,droughts,and temperature shaped the temporal changes of cholera epidemics in the province,which was"more cases in the late period and less in the early stage".This study is a long-term series of cholera epidemics research,and its conclusions have guiding significance for the prevention and control of cholera epidemics in areas with dense lake water systems.
万方数据
