Spatio-temporal patterns of succulence sown area and its driving factors considering forage demand and supply in China during 2000-2020
High-yield and superior-quality succulence is crucial to the development of national animal husbandry and food supply.However,the current understanding of the spatial and temporal variation pattern of succulence sown area needs to be improved,especially the stage characteristics,regional differences and driving factors are not yet clear.Based on the provincial panel data,we analyse the spatial and temporal dynamic patterns of succulence sown area from 2000 to 2020,and reveal its driving factors of forage supply and demand based on natural forage production,crop straw production,and forage demand estimated by MODIS-derived NPP datasets,crop production,and total livestock in each provincial-level region.The main results are that:(1)The sown area of succulence in China was 2199 thousand hectares,accounting for only 1.3％of the crop sown area in 2020.The succulence plantation in China is mainly distributed in pastoral areas,accounting for 59％of the country.(2)Since 2000,the interannual variation of succulence sown area in China has undergone three stages:a rapid growth stage(2000-2003,464.2 thousand hm2/a),a rapid decline stage(2004-2009,-399 thousand hm2/a)and a slow growth stage(2010-2020,64.3 thousand hm2/a).The pastoral provinces dominated the dynamics of the whole country.(3)Forage supply and demand factors can explain at most 92％of the dynamic of succulence sown area.Forage demand increases by 10000 tons,the sown area of succulence increases by 900 hectares at most.Straw forage and succulence complement each other,and straw forage production mainly has negative effects(the partial regression coefficients ranges from-1.2 to-0.5)on the sown area of succulence.The natural forage production has little effect on the change of succulence sown area.In addition,ecological engineering and agricultural policy play important roles in regulating the development of dairy,forage,and planting husbandry.Our study on spatial and temporal patterns of succulence sown area and its driving factors considering forage demand and supply can provide scientific support for the formulation of relevant policies and measures such as food security,ecological environment protection and crop structure adjustment.
万方数据
