A new paradigm of the floating population analysis and the estimation of inter-provincial migration sub-flows in China
The statistical definition of migration in China is attached with its unique household registration(hukou)system,the migrants so defined are also called the floating population.A new analytical paradigm is needed to deal with the complexity of sub-flows in the floating population.The paper classifies five types of the floating population in census context by referring the UN migration criteria,and constructs a new paradigm for analyzing the floating population in China.As a particular provincial-level region(hereafter province)is concerned,the inflow and outflow people belong to different hukou groups balanced by their own counter-flow,namely,inflow vs back-inflow(both have no hukou of the province),outflow vs back-outflow(both have hukou of the province).With the clue of inter-census migration cohort,a sub-flows model is constructed to identify the inter-provincial migration based on the retention rate.The annual retention rate of the inter-provincial migration cohort from 2010 to 2020 is 88.7％.Based on the provincial retention rates,an all-increment table of population change by province in China is made by modelling simulation.The paper surfaces new characteristics of population growth and inter-provincial migration:(1)Provincial population changes are divided into five types,among which the inflow-leading increase type is mainly found in municipalities and the eastern coastal areas,while the fertility-leading increase type and the fertility-overriding increase type are mainly in the western provinces and the agricultural provinces in the middle,and the outflow-overriding decrease type and the outflow-leading decrease type in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Gansu and the northeastern provinces.(2)The mechanical growth of population can be divided into four types:rapid increase,equilibrium,outflow-overriding decrease and dual decrease(both hukou and non-hukou migration are negative).A"W"-shaped mechanical growth rate profile from northwest to southeast is found with the equilibrium belt standing in its middle.(3)Population floating is divided into three types.The counter-flows are highly-correlated:inflow rate and outflow rate are negatively correlated while the inflow-back-inflow and outflow-back-outflow are significant positively correlated.The analytical paradigm and model of floating population in China can be further extended to the study of"citizenship seeking migration"including international migration,and even further to identity migration including migrations with status changing such as enrollment,employment and marriage.
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