首页|南海周边国家对中国的对冲强度演变及对冲战略

南海周边国家对中国的对冲强度演变及对冲战略

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后冷战时代世界格局朝多极化发展,国家地缘战略行为逐渐摆脱传统"制衡—追随"二元模式,南海周边国家对中国转而采取灵活和多元的对冲战略.本文援引国际关系学对冲理论,从地缘政治视角界定地缘体对冲运行方式,以驱动要素、中介要素、战略选择构建对冲战略分析框架,测算南海周边国家地缘政治风险和国家相对权力指数,借助双变量可视化方法呈现对冲强度演变,运用象限图法划分对冲形态,最后以南海周边国家的现实战略选择进行理论验证.研究发现:①21世纪以来,南海周边国家地缘政治风险呈现"企稳却难安"态势,国家间异质性显著;国家相对权力呈现波动趋势,其演变过程与美国干预紧密相关.②南海周边国家对冲强度是地缘政治风险和国家相对权力互动的结果,分别形成越南和菲律宾、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和文莱3种模式.③南海周边国家对中国对冲战略选择的内在逻辑是南海周边国家的安全威胁认知和国家战略定位建构的战略认知,形成差异化的对冲形态,并以合作性或竞争性战略工具为主导施展各自的对冲战略.厘清南海周边国家对中国的对冲强度和对冲战略特征,可为中国良性参与南海地区区域治理提供科技支撑.
The evolution of hedging intensity and hedging strategies of countries surrounding the South China Sea towards China
In the post-Cold War era,the global landscape has evolved towards multipolarity,and the geostrategic behavior of states has gradually shifted away from the traditional binary model of"balancing-bandwagoning"to a more flexible and diverse one called hedging strategy,and it is the current strategy that the countries surrounding the South China Sea have adopted in response to China's actions.By introducing the hedging theory of international relations,we seek to understand,from a geopolitical perspective,how these geopolitical entities employ hedging strategies.First,an analytical framework is constructed to theorize hedging strategy,consisting of driving factors,mediating factors,and strategic choices.Second,the hedging intensity is assessed quantitatively via the geopolitical risk and the relative power index of the countries surrounding the South China Sea.The evolution of it is presented through a bivariate visualization method,and the various hedging patterns are classified by utilizing the quadrant diagram.Finally,both the theoretical framework and quantitative outcomes are validated by analyzing the strategic practices of the study region.We conclude that:(1)the geopolitical risks of the countries surrounding the South China Sea have been"tending to be stable but difficult to achieve"since the beginning of the 21st century,with significant heterogeneity among these countries.The evolution of state relative power exhibits a fluctuating trend,closely linked to U.S.intervention.(2)The hedging intensity of the countries surrounding the South China Sea results from the interaction between geopolitical risk and state relative power,leading to three distinct forms,represented by Vietnam and the Philippines,Indonesia,and Malaysia and Brunei,respectively.(3)The intrinsic logic of the hedging strategies of these countries can be seen as a strategic cognition shaped by their threat awareness and national strategic orientation.This cognition then orientates diverse hedging approaches that guide these countries in applying either cooperative or competitive tools.By understanding the intensity and nature of the strategic hedging by the countries surrounding the South China Sea,we aim to provide a unique vantage point for China's regional governance in the South China Sea.

geopoliticshedging intensityhedging strategygeopolitical riskstate relative powercountries surrounding the South China SeaGDELT

富宁宁、葛岳静、李彦征、黄宇、胡伟、牛福长、宋智渊、刘玉立

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北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原地球系统与资源环境全国重点实验室,北京 100101

浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,金华 321004

青海师范大学地理科学学院,西宁 810008

青岛大学一带一路研究院,青岛 266071

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地缘政治 对冲强度 对冲战略 地缘政治风险 国家相对权力 南海周边国家 GDELT

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目中国博士后科学基金

20&ZD1384220125842101231420011514187112822YJCZH0572020M680693

2024

10.11821/dlxb202408012

地理学报
中国地理学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：3.3
ISSN：0375-5444
年,卷(期)：2024.79(8)
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