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全球能源产业的价值分配与依赖关系及影响因素

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能源是全球经济正常运作的重要基石,理清全球能源产业格局的特征和态势意义重大.基于联合国跨国投入产出数据对1990-2022年能源产业价值进行测算,揭示了全球不同产业环节的价值分配、非对称依赖关系及其影响因素.研究表明:①全球能源价值规模在时序上大致上呈现"缓慢—快速—缓慢—萧条"的发展趋势,与全球经济10年周期规律基本一致.②能源小国高度依赖于能源大国,大国间相互依赖数值也有所上升,尤其是勘探开采环节依赖指数迅速增长,全球逐渐趋向于"共存共荣"的经济命运共同体.③中国、俄罗斯、沙特等国家的崛起,推动着全球依赖网络中的链主和枢纽转换,区域社团边界趋向模糊、权力等级结构开始迭代,冷战后美国为核心的单极世界向多极化方向演进,全球能源秩序正深刻重组.④国家(地区)间能源产业依赖关系是国家(地区)主体差异、相对优势和多维邻近性共同作用的结果.其中贸易差距、企业差距、共同语言、历史殖民和合作组织呈现出显著的正向驱动,地理距离呈现出显著的负向抑制作用,而经济差距、制度环境差异的影响并不明显.不同时期能源产业环节间的影响因素效能也存在明显差异.
Value distribution,dependency,and drivers of the global energy industry
Energy is pivotal for the operation of the global economy.It is thus critical for us to elucidate the characteristics and dynamics of the global energy industry during the process of transformation in the 21st century.Using the input-output data by the United Nations from 1990 to 2022,this study gauges the added value of the energy industry of 184 countries and regions in the world and seeks to show its distribution,asymmetric dependency,and key drivers across different industrial stages.(1)We find the value of the global energy industry grew slowly at first,then rapidly,followed by slowly again,and ended up a recession during the period covered in our analysis.This temporal trend corresponds to the cycle of the global economy for each decade.(2)Energy small countries exhibited growing dependence on energy superpowers,and likewise interdependence among energy superpowers also increased,especially in the stage of prospecting and exploitation.This signifies that our world has gradually become an interconnected community of economic coexistence and co-prosperity.(3)We saw the rise of China,Russia,Saudi Arabia,and other countries as they gradually became the chain leader and hubs of the global energy industrial network.Their rise also has made the boundaries of cooperatives blur and the hierarchy of power iterate.The post Cold-War world is evolving from a unipolar one dominated by the United States into a multipolar one,and the global energy order is experiencing a profound reorganization.(4)Interdependence on the energy industry is a result of differences in attributes among countries(regions),their relative advantages,and their multidimensional proximity.Trade gaps,disparities among coporates,shared languages,colonial histories,and global organizations strengthened their interdependence,whereas geographic distance acted as a significant negative factor.Both economic gaps and institutional environments did not make any significant differences in shaping energy dependence.The role of these factors vary across different industrial stages over time.

geopoliticsvalue distributionasymmetric dependencyinternational energy structuredriversglobal value chain

张强、杜德斌、夏启繁、孙溯源、桂钦昌

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华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海 200062

华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海 200062

华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241

华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院,上海 200062

西南大学地理科学学院,重庆 400715

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地缘政治 价值分配 非对称依赖 国际能源格局 影响因素 全球价值链

国家社会科学基金重大项目

19ZDA087

2024

地理学报
中国地理学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.3
ISSN:0375-5444
年,卷(期):2024.79(10)