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基于概率连通与关联矩阵的配电网可靠性评估

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针对源荷多重不确定性导致故障后配电网转供裕度难以准确度量的问题,提出了考虑故障后网络安全约束概率越限风险的有源配电网可靠性评估方法.首先,采用拉丁超立方抽样法建立了分布式电源与负荷需求及其响应的不确定性模型;其次,提出了考虑故障后容量和电压概率越限风险的故障关联矩阵推导方法;再次,提出了基于正态分布概率特征的机会约束处理方法和非线性潮流转化方法;最后,采用解析法计算系统可靠性指标.
Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Based on Probability Connectivity and Incidence Matrix
In response to the difficulty in accurately measuring the post-fault resilience of distribution network due to un-certainties in both the source and load,a method for evaluating the reliability of active distribution network is proposed with the consideration of the probability over limit risk of post-fault network security constraints.First,the Latin hyper-cube sampling method is employed to establish uncertainty models for distributed generations,load demand and the cor-responding responses.Second,a method for deriving a fault incidence matrix considering the post-fault capacity and the risk of voltage probability over limit is introduced.Third,an approach to handle opportunity constraints based on the probability characteristics of normal distribution and a non-linear power flow transformation method are presented.Final-ly,the reliability indices for the system are calculated using an analytical method.

reliability evaluationdistribution networkprobability over limitfault incidence matrixuncertainty

韩俊、潘文婕、蔡超、樊安洁、陈皓菲

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国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,南京 210008

可靠性评估 配电网 概率越限 故障关联矩阵 不确定性

2025

电力系统及其自动化学报
天津大学

电力系统及其自动化学报

北大核心
影响因子:1.209
ISSN:1003-8930
年,卷(期):2025.37(1)