Wind Power Forecasting Based on LightGBM-Seq2Seq Model Under Abnormal Weather
The sharp fluctuations of new energy output under abnormal weather will seriously threaten the safe operation of the power grid.Aiming at low accuracy of wind power prediction caused by abnormal changes of meteorological factors,this paper proposes a wind power forecasting method for abnormal weather period based on LightGBM-Seq2Seq.Firstly,due to the lack of quantitative criteria about abnormal weather in the field of renewable generation,this paper designs a judging criteria for abnormal weather and uses multi-scale sliding windows to extract abnormal sample.Secondly,poor matching between meteorological fluctuations and power fluctuations under abnormal weather will make the wind power output forecasting more difficult.Aiming at this problem,this paper proposes a benchmark power prediction model based on LightGBM to calculate the benchmark power under abnormal weather.Meanwhile,this paper takes the deviation of actual power from the benchmark power caused by abnormal meteorological fluctuations into consideration and proposes an incremental power prediction model based on Seq2Seq,in order to correct the benchmark power value and achieve wind power prediction under abnormal weather.Finally,the actual example verified that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of wind power prediction under abnormal weather.
abnormal weatherwind power forecastingLightGBMSeq2Seq
万方数据
维普
