耦合多期扩展规律和空间异质性的城市扩展元胞自动机模拟

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中文摘要：城市扩展模拟对优化城市空间结构和制定合理规划目标具有重要意义,元胞自动机为城市扩展模拟提供了方法支撑,但综合表达城市扩展时空复杂性的耦合模型仍较少.该文提出一种耦合多期扩展规律和空间异质性的元胞自动机模型(Multi-Temporal and Spatial Cellular Automata,MTS-CA),首先从多方面刻画城市扩展特征并计算各时期与模拟目标期的特征相似性,由此为不同时期的城市扩展规律分配权重;然后利用自组织映射神经网络对城市空间进行分区,挖掘不同空间特征下的扩展规则,表达空间异质性;最后将各时期的局部空间转换规则加权融合得到耦合模型的转换规则.以上海市为研究区验证模型的有效性,结果发现:①城市扩展过程并不是简单的马尔可夫过程,顾及多期扩展规律的模型能更充分表达城市扩展机制,且扩展特征的相似性可在一定程度上表征扩展规律的一致性;②挖掘城市扩展规律时,使用地理分区策略可顾及空间异质性,使局部区域概率分布的匹配效果更佳,进而提升模拟精度;③MTS-CA可以顾及城市扩展的时空复杂性,实现更准确、合理的城市扩展模拟.

外文标题：Cellular Automata Simulation of Urban Expansion by Coupling Multi-period Expansion Law and Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis

外文摘要：Urban expansion simulation has important practical significance for optimizing urban spatial structure and formulating reasonable planning objectives.Cellular automata provides a method support for urban expansion simulation,but there are few coupling models that comprehensively express the complexity of time and space of urban growth.In this paper,we propose a cel-lular automaton model(Multi-Temporal and Spatial Cellular Automata,MTS-CA)coupling multi-period expansion law and spa-tial heterogeneity analysis.The characteristics of urban expansion in different periods are described from three aspects of model,distribution and direction,and the similarity between each period and the simulation target period is calculated,so as to assign weights to the urban expansion laws in different periods.The Self-Organizing Map(SOM)is used to partition the urban space.On this basis,the logistic regression equation is used to mine the expansion rules under different spatial characteristics and ex-press the spatial heterogeneity of urban expansion.Finally,the local spatial expansion rules of each period are weighted and fused to obtain the coupled transformation rules.Taking Shanghai as the study area,the validity of the proposed model is veri-fied.The results are shown as follows.① The process of urban expansion is not a simple Markov process.The model that takes into account the expansion law of multi-period can capture the law of urban expansion more fully,and the similarity of expansion characteristics can represent the consistency of the law of expansion to a certain extent.② When mining the law of urban expan-sion,the geographical partitioning strategy can take into account the spatial heterogeneity,and make the matching effect of local regional probability distribution better,so as to improve the accuracy of simulation.③ MTS-CA can take into account the time and space complexity of urban expansion,and realize a more accurate and reasonable simulation of urban expansion.

外文关键词：

urban expansiongeographical similaritycellular automatageographic simulationspatiotemporal complexity

作者：

李启源、王海军、曾浩然、彭小桃、孙端、陈睿

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作者单位：

武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉 430079

自然资源部国土空间规划与开发保护重点实验室,北京 100871

中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司,北京 100044

自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点实验室,广东广州 510631

广东省国土资源测绘院,广东广州 510663

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关键词：

城市扩展地理相似性元胞自动机地理模拟时空复杂性

基金：

自然资源部国土空间规划与开发保护重点实验室—中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司联合开放基金项目国家自然科学基金项目自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点实验室开放基金项目

项目编号：

TSPDP23/04421714112023NRMK02

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2024.01.004

地理与地理信息科学

河北省科学院地理科学研究所

地理与地理信息科学

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心

影响因子：1.122

ISSN：1672-0504

年,卷(期)：2024.40(1)

参考文献量12