Dynamic Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS Model
Based on land use data and the landscape ecological risk evaluation model,this paper analyses the spatial and temporal characteristics of landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2020,and com-bines the PLUS model to make scientific predictions on the spatial distribution pattern of landscape ecological risk in the Chang-sha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area in 2030 under the natural development scenario and the ecological protection sce-nario.It is found as follows.① From 2000 to 2020,the landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropoli-tan Area showed the distribution characteristics of high in the north and low in the south,high in the west and low in the east.The proportion of lower and medium ecological risk areas accounted for more than 60％of the total area.In the past 20 years,the area of ecological risk intensification was less than 1％of the area of ecological risk reduction,which showed the characteris-tics of the transfer from high level ecological risk area to low level ecological risk area.② The values of Moran's I of landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area were all positive,which showed strong spatial agglomera-tion characteristics.High-high agglomeration areas with high landscape ecological risk values were mainly distributed in Ningx-iang City,Wangcheng District,Lukou District,Yuhua District and Changsha County,while low-low agglomeration areas with low landscape ecological risk values were mainly distributed at the boundary of the study area.③ The results of landscape eco-logical risk prediction show that compared with the"natural development scenario",the"ecological protection scenario"slows down the rate of ecological land reduction,which is more conducive to mitigating the ecological risk of the study area.This sce-nario is more in line with the future development needs and planning of the city,which is conducive to the construction of a har-monious and orderly ecological security pattern in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area.
landscape ecological riskPLUS modelmulti-scenario simulationChangsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area
万方数据
维普
