Identifying and Assessing the Spatial Network of Summer Urban Heat Environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration under the SSP-RCP Scenarios
Integrating theories and techniques such as GIS,morphological spatial pattern analysis,circuit theory and graph theo-ry,future climate data and land use scenario data based on the joint scenario framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),this paper quantitatively identified the spatial and temporal pat-terns of summer heat island patches in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under three future development scenarios,including the low radiative forcing scenario(SSP1-RCP2.6),the medium radiative forcing scenario(SSP2-RCP4.5)and the high radiative forcing scenario(SSP5-RCP8.5)from 2021 to 2100,and evaluated the spatio-temporal evolution process and structural characteristics of the spatial network of the summer urban heat environment.The results are as follows.①The heat island patch type of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is dominated by core type and edge type from 2021 to 2100.The number and area of summer heat environment source sites as well as the number,total length and current density of corri-dors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration show an increasing trend with time and increasing scenario forcing.Among them,the concentrated growth areas of heat environment source sites and corridors in the urban agglomeration migrate significantly from south to north with time and enhanced scenario forcing,while the high-density areas of corridors are always located in the southeast of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.② The sum of current density,pinch point stability,closure,line point rate and connectivity of the spatial network of summer heat environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration are all positively correlated with scenario forcing.The spatial and temporal imbalance in the urban development is an important reason influencing the structural characteristics of the spatial network of summer urban heat environment.The study will provide a technical paradigm for future spatial network prediction and assessment of the summer heat environment in urban agglomerations under different development scenarios and stages,and also provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for the coordinated development of urban agglomerations to actively respond to climate change risks.
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