Research on Transformer Fault Prediction Model Based on Vector Autoregression
Predicting the fault rate of transformers can enhance their operational reliability and stability,ensuring the stable functioning of the power grid.Transformer faults can be classified into random faults and aging faults based on the operational time of the transformer.During the random fault period,the probability of faults remains nearly constant.In the aging fault period,faults are closely related to the transformer's operational status,mainte-nance conditions,historical data,environmental parameters,etc.First,a relationship model between fault rate and various factors is established.Then,adjustments are made to account for changes in the fault rate caused by maintenance.Finally,a vector autoregression(VAR)algorithm is used to fit the parameters in the model,result-ing in a transformer fault rate model.Test case results show that this method can accurately predict the trans-former fault rate.
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