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我国沿海混合强风区典型桥址设计风速取值研究

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为解决我国沿海典型强/台风混合风气候地区仅依赖实测样本难以准确估计不同风气候极值风速的问题,提出同时考虑台风与非台风的极值风速估计方法。对于非台风气候,利用最优概率密度分布拟合年极值风速样本,并考虑因有限样本和概率模型选择产生的不确定性,获取非台风极值风速区间,其中广义极值(GEV)分布与皮尔逊Ⅲ型(P3)分布估计不确定性约为3~8 m/s。对于台风气候,采用随机路径数值模拟方法,结合三维台风风场模型直接估计10 m高度、基准高度处的极值风速。由此将非台风和台风作为独立事件,采用两者极值风速曲线外包络作为推荐的极值风速设计曲线,并与现行规范进行比较。结果表明,以区间作为取值依据,可保证规范风速普遍低于上包络风速2~5 m/s,临近区间均值,落于区间内,提供了更全面的风速取值方法。
Research on design wind speed of typical bridge sites in coastal hybrid strong wind regions of China
To address the issue of difficulty in accurately estimating extreme wind speeds for different wind cli-mates in typical coastal areas of China with strong/typhoon mixed wind climates,a method for estimating ex-treme wind speeds considering both typhoons and non-typhoons is proposed.For non-typhoon data,the opti-mal probability density distribution is used to fit the annual extreme wind speed samples of meteorological sta-tions,and the uncertainty caused by limited sample size and the selection of different probability models are taken into consideration,to obtain the extreme wind speed range.The estimation uncertainty of generalized ex-treme value(GEV)and Pearson-Ⅲ(P3)is approximately 3 to 8 m/s.For typhoon data,the stochastic path simulation combined with three-dimensional typhoon wind field model is adopted to directly estimate the ex-treme wind speed at a height of 10 m and the reference height.Therefore,non-typhoon and typhoon events are treated as independent events,and the outer envelope of their extreme wind speed curves is used as the recom-mended design curve,and compared with the current regulations.The results show that using intervals to choose wind speed can ensure that the standard wind speed is generally 2 to 5 m/s lower than the upper enve-lope wind speed,close to the interval mean,and falls within the interval,providing a more comprehensive method for wind speed values.

hybrid strong windstyphoonnon-typhoonextreme wind speeduncertaintystochastic simulation

吴思哲、方根深、潘放、胡小浓、赵林、葛耀君

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同济大学土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室,上海 200092

同济大学桥梁结构抗风技术交通行业重点实验室,上海 200092

广东省公路建设有限公司,广州 510623

混合强风 台风 非台风 极值风速 不确定性 随机模拟

国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目

519785275210846952278520

2024

东南大学学报(自然科学版)
东南大学

东南大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.989
ISSN:1001-0505
年,卷(期):2024.54(3)