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越南与菲律宾南海油气资源共同开发政策的比较

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越南和菲律宾是中国在南海推动"搁置争议、共同开发"倡议的主要对象国.越南提出了"合作共同发展"的开发模式,中越正在开展北部湾湾口外海域共同开发磋商,但迄今尚未就该海域的共同开发取得实质性突破.中菲两国于2018年签署《关于油气开发合作的谅解备忘录》,建立了一种既有政府又有企业参与的"双层结构"磋商机制.对越菲两国南海共同开发政策进行比较研究,有助于中国与越菲开展有针对性的共同开发谈判.越菲共同开发政策的比较可从核心决策圈、民意、经济收益和美国介入四个方面展开.从"核心决策圈"来看,越南是越共中央集体决策,政策延续性较强,菲律宾的决策与总统本人及其私人决策圈有很大关系,政策延续性差.从"民意"来看,越菲两国不少民众都对与中国开展共同开发的意图存有一些疑虑,对中越、中菲南海共同开发构成消极影响.从"经济收益"来看,越菲都对南海油气资源有着较高依存度,都有与中国开展共同开发的经济利益需求.从"美国介入"来看,美国介入程度加深,给中越、中菲共同开发进程带来负面影响.相关的政策思考必须从开展公关说服、做好民意工作、推动利益融合、采取反介入措施等方面入手.
A Comparative Study of Policies on Joint Development of Oil and Gas Resources in the South China Sea between Vietnam and the Philippines
Vietnam and the Philippines are the main target countries for China to initiate the"promoting joint development while shelving differences"in the South China Sea(SCS).Vietnam has put forward its own version of the SCS joint development initiative named the Cooperation for Mutual Development(CFMD).China and Vietnam are now engaged in conducting joint development negotiations in the waters off the mouth of the Beibu Gulf.However,no substantive breakthrough has been achieved regarding the joint development of this area so far.China and the Philippines signed Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation on Oil and Gas Development(MOU)in 2018,establishing a"dual-layer structure"negotiation mechanism involving both government and corporate entities.Currently,the two countries are in discussions on how to advance offshore oil and gas development.A comparative study on the SCS joint development policies of Vietnam and the Philippines can help China engage in targeted joint development negotiations with Vietnam and the Philippines.The comparison of joint development policies between Vietnam and the Philippines can be approached from four aspects:core decision-making circles,public opinion,economic benefits,and the U.S.intervention.From the perspective of"core decision-making circles",Vietnam's decisions are made collectively by the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee,resulting in a stronger policy continuity.In contrast,the decision-making process in the Philippines is significantly influenced by the presidents and their personal circle,leading to weaker policy continuity.From the perspective of"public opinion",many citizens in both Vietnam and the Philippines harbor some doubts about the intention to engage in joint development with China,which negatively affects the prospects of joint development in the SCS between China,Vietnam,and the Philippines.From the perspective of"economic benefits",both Vietnam and the Philippines have a high dependence on the oil and gas resources in the SCS and thus have economic interests in engaging in joint development with China.Regarding"the U.S.intervention",increased intervention by the U.S.has had a negative impact on the joint development process among China,Vietnam,and the Philippines.

ChinaVietnamThe PhilippinesJoint DevelopmentCore Decision-making Circle

祁怀高

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复旦大学国际问题研究院

越南与菲律宾 南海油气资源 共同开发 核心决策圈

国家社会科学基金一般项目

20BGJ081

2024

南亚东南亚研究
云南省社会科学院

南亚东南亚研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.343
ISSN:1674-6392
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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