Aiming at the problem of low utilization rate of new energy due to limited access of new energy due to the change of operation mode of regional power grid,this paper proposes a short-term dynamic scheduling model of new energy power plant online load based on improved ARIMA algorithm.Firstly,according to the discontinuity of photovoltaic power generation and the seasonality,randomness and intermittenity of new wind energy power generation,the improved Wiener filter algorithm is used to extract the effective load law from the historical load through the adaptive threshold changes.The ITO process and product method were used to improve ARIMA,that is,to improve the accuracy of new energy load discontinuity by improving the timing method.Finally,dynamic scheduling of new energy power plant online load is carried out by ADMM.The experimental results show that compared with ARIMA and LSTM,the accuracy of photovoltaic prediction is improved by 29.1%and 22%,and the accuracy of wind power prediction is improved by 17.3%and 5.6%.The new energy efficiency is 10%higher than that of traditional methods.
关键词
上网通道受阻/等比例限电/改进维纳滤波/改进ARIMA
Key words
internet access blocked/proportional power rationing/improved Wiener filter/improved ARIMA
维普
万方数据