首页|The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble
The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble
扫码查看
点击上方二维码区域，可以放大扫码查看
原文链接
国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
Climate changes in 21st century China are described based on the projections of 11 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China under the RCP scenarios, with the northern regions showing greater warming than the southern regions. The warming tendency from 2011 to 2100 is 0.06°C/10 a for RCP2.6, 0.24°C/10 a for RCP4.5, and 0.63°C/10 a for RCP8.5. The projected time series of annual temperature have similar variation tendencies as the new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario pathways, and the warming under the lower emission scenarios is less than under the higher emission scenarios. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, and the increasing precipitation in the northern regions is significant and greater than in the southern regions in China. It is noted that precipitation will tend to decrease in the southern parts of China during the period of 2011–2040, especially under RCP8.5. Compared with the changes over the globe and some previous projections, the increased warming and precipitation over China is more remarkable under the higher emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the projection are unavoidable, and further analyses are necessary to develop a better understanding of the future changes over the region.
projectionRCP scenariosChina
XU Chong-Hai、XU Ying
展开 >
Meteorological Observation Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
