首页|Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

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Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year (1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature (SST)boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies (SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

seasonal forecastmulti-model ensemblepredictive skillHuaihe River basin

TANG Wei、LIN Zhao-Hui、LUO Li-Feng

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International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

国家自然科学基金National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)-Yunnan Province Joint Grant国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)NOAA Climate Program Office and Michigan State UniversityNOAA Climate Program Office and Michigan State University

41175073U11336032010CB4284032009CB421406NA 10OAR4310246NA12OAR 4310081

2013

10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0025

大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)

CSCD
影响因子：0.465
ISSN：1674-2834
年,卷(期)：2013.6(4)
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