首页|CMIP6模式对亚洲中高纬地区极端降水模拟性能评估

CMIP6模式对亚洲中高纬地区极端降水模拟性能评估

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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本文基于亚洲中高纬地区逐日降水观测资料和CMIP6中12个全球模式资料,采用泰勒图等方法,系统评估CMIP6模式对该地区极端降水的模拟能力,并与CMIP5结果进行对比.结果表明,相较于CMIP5模式,CMIP6模式能够更好地模拟极端降水指数气候平均态以及趋势变化特征,与观测相关系数更高.多模式集合平均在模拟极端降水方面普遍优于单个模式.为进一步评估单个模型的性能,与CMIP5中的旧版本模式进行了两两比较.尽管针对不同的模式和评估指标结果存在一些差异,但大多数新版本模式模拟极端降水能力较CMIP5有所增强.
Assessment of model performance of precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitude areas of Northern Hemisphere:from CMIP5 to CMIP6
This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the previous phase,CMIP5.Results show that the multimodel ensemble median generally outperforms the individual models in simulating the climate means of precipita-tion extremes.The CMIP6 models possess a relatively higher capability in this respect than the CMIP5 models.However,discrepancies also exist between models and observation,insofar as most of the simulated indices are positively biased to varying degrees.With respect to the temporal performance of indices,the majority are overestimated at most time points,along with large uncertainty.Therefore,the capacity to simulate the interannual variability needs to be further improved.Furthermore,pairwise and multimodel ensemble comparisons were performed for 12 models to evaluate the performance of individual models,revealing that most of the new-version models are better than their predecessors,albeit with some variance in the metrics amongst models and indices.

Precipitation extremesCMIP5CMIP6the mid-high latitudes of Asia

LIN Wenqing、CHEN Huopo

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Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China

College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China

Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China

极端降水 CMIP5 CMIP6 亚洲中高纬

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaStrategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Key Research and Development Program of China

4199128441922034XDA230901022016YFA0602401

2020

大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)

CSCD
影响因子：0.465
ISSN：1674-2834
年,卷(期)：2020.13(6)
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