El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and car-bon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in vari-ability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9％compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2％.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.
Carbon variabilityENSO modulationCMIP6 models
Younong Li、Li Dan、Jing Peng、Qidong Yang、Fuqiang Yang
展开 >
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region,Department of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming,China
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
