首页|Predicted Climate Change will Increase Landslide Risk in Hanjiang River Basin,China

Predicted Climate Change will Increase Landslide Risk in Hanjiang River Basin,China

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Landslides are widespread geomorphological phenomena with complex mechanisms that have caused extensive causalities and property damage worldwide.The scale and frequency of land-slides are presently increasing owing to the warming effects of climate change,which further increases the associated safety risks.In this study,the relationship between historical landslides and environmen-tal variables in the Hanjiang River Basin was determined and an optimized model was used to con-strain the relative contribution of variables and best spatial response curve.The optimal MaxEnt mod-el was used to predict the current distribution of landslides and influence of future rainfall changes on the landslide susceptibility.The results indicate that environmental variables in the study area statisti-cally correlate with landslide events over the past 20 years.The MaxEnt model evaluation was applied to landslide hazards in the Hanjiang River Basin based on current climate change scenarios.The re-sults indicate that 25.9％of the study area is classified as a high-risk area.The main environmental variables that affect the distribution of landslides include altitude,slope,normalized difference vegeta-tion index,annual precipitation,distance from rivers,and distance from roads,with a cumulative con-tribution rate of approximately 90％.The annual rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin will continue to increase under future climate warming scenarios.Increased rainfall will further increase the extent of high-and medium-risk areas in the basin,especially when following the RCP8.5 climate prediction,which is expected to increase the high-risk area by 10.7％by 2070.Furthermore,high landslide risk ar-eas in the basin will migrate to high-altitude areas in the future,which poses new challenges for the pre-vention and control of landslide risks.This study demonstrates the usefulness of the MaxEnt model as a tool for landslide susceptibility prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin caused by global warming and yields robust prediction results.This approach therefore provides an important reference for river ba-sin management and disaster reduction and prevention.The study on landslide risks also supports the hypothesis that global climate change will further enhance the frequency and intensity of landslide ac-tivity throughout the course of the 21st Century.

Hanjiang River Basinclimate changeenvironmental factorlandslide susceptibility as-sessmentMaxEnt model

Xinggang Tang、Lingjian Wang、Huiyong Wang、Yingdan Yuan、Dou Huang、Jinchi Zhang

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Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China

Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology,College of Horticulture and Plant Protection,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China

College of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China

Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)National Foundation of Forestry Science and Technology PopularizationMajor Fund for Natural Science of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions

[2015]1715KJA220004

2024

10.1007/s12583-021-1511-2

地球科学学刊(英文版)
中国地质大学

地球科学学刊(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.724
ISSN：1674-487X
年,卷(期)：2024.35(4)
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