首页|System Reliability Analysis of Reservoir Landslides:Insights from Long-Term Reservoir Operation

System Reliability Analysis of Reservoir Landslides:Insights from Long-Term Reservoir Operation

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The reservoir operation awakens numerous landslides with multiple sliding surfaces known as reservoir landslides,and the systematic stability analysis for such landslides is becoming in-creasingly urgent.Taking the Majiagou landslide as an example,this paper analyses the comprehensive performance of the landslide from a probabilistic point of view.Under a reservoir operation cycle,a se-ries of numerical analyses are carried out to simulate the migration of the seepage field,then the dy-namic stability of the landslide is quantified accordingly.Subsequently,the wetting-drying cycles test is used to model the weakening of strength parameters in hydro-fluctuation belt under the long-term res-ervoir operation.Considering the weakening effect of long-term reservoir operation on the hydro-fluctuation belt,the system reliability is evaluated using the Ditlevsen's bounds.The results suggest that the reservoir operation can affect the stability of the landslide by changing the seepage field.The system failure probability gradually rises as the number of wetting-drying cycles increases.Compared with conventional probabilistic analysis that calculates the failure probability of each sliding surface mechanically,analyzing the landslide in terms of system reliability can effectively narrow the failure probability range,which provides an insightful idea for evaluating the systematic stability of analogous reservoir landslides.

reservoir operationreservoir landslideshydro-fluctuation beltsystem reliabilityditlevsen's boundsengineering geology

Kang Liao、Yiping Wu、Fasheng Miao

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Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China

Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China

Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSFFundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesNational Key R&D Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNatural Science Foundation of Hubei ProvinceGuizhou Provincial Science and Technology Project

GZB202306072682024CX1 252023YFC3007201423771612023AFB580QKHZC[2023]YB127

2024

10.1007/s12583-022-1668-3

地球科学学刊(英文版)
中国地质大学

地球科学学刊(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.724
ISSN：1674-487X
年,卷(期)：2024.35(5)