首页|Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia

Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia

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The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia.The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1,A1B,and A2 IPCC emission scenarios.The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability.Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation:three in the northern regions (Northeast China,Mongolia,and Northwest China),one in eastern China,and one over the Tibetan Plateau.Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions.Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia.The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century.While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios,only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the Bl scenario,which has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.Our analysis indicates that sub-regional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.

regional climate change index,multi-model ensemble,sub-regional hot-spot,East Asia

XU Ying、GAO Xuejie、F. GIORGI

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National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics,Trieste,Italy

National Basic Research ProgramNational Basic Research ProgramNational Basic Research ProgramNational Basic Research ProgramR & D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology)中国科学院资助项目

2009CB4214072006CB4037072007BAC03A01GYHY200806010KZCX2-YW-Q1-02

2009

10.1007/s00376-009-9034-2

大气科学进展(英文版)
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气科学进展(英文版)

CSTPCDCSCDSCI
影响因子：0.741
ISSN：0256-1530
年,卷(期)：2009.26(4)
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