首页|Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

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In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Nina event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Nino and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30％of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20％and the interannual variability portion being about 10％.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

extreme spring droughtSouthwestern Chinaprecipitationevaporationwarming trendinternal variabilitypredictability

Yunyun LIU、Zeng-Zhen HU、Renguang WU、Xing YUAN

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CMA Climate Studies Key Laboratory,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

Climate Prediction Center,NCEP/NOAA,College Park,Maryland 20740,USA

School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China

School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

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国家重点研发计划Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research国家自然科学基金China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development ProjectJoint Open Project of KLME&CIC-FEMD,NUIST

2017YFA06050042020B030103000442175056CXFZ2022J031KLME202102

2022

大气科学进展(英文版)
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气科学进展(英文版)

CSTPCDCSCDSCI
影响因子：0.741
ISSN：0256-1530
年,卷(期)：2022.39(10)
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